想做什么样的内容？是要润色这条标题，还是要一段赛前数据解读/概率预测？
Considering Poisson model and headlines
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I’m thinking about offering to run a quick Poisson model if they provide average goals for and against. We can also approximate using recent season stats, but we might need to ask clarifying questions about the round and opponent. Since they mentioned crafting a headline, perhaps they want to refine it. I'll suggest some polished headline variants in Chinese and propose options for what they might need, like optimization or a pre-match overview.Structuring analysis for draws
I want to keep the formatting light, maybe a bullet list is okay. I'll provide a generic analysis template, but without specifics on the opponents, I can't assert anything definitive.
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I should say something like: “90分钟内打平的概率在25-35%区间。” If their xG is close, maybe that could go up to 35-40%. I’ll also offer to compute a custom probability using the Poisson model with their specific inputs. Let's get this written up!
想做什么样的内容？是要润色这条标题，还是要一段赛前数据解读/概率预测？
先给你几版可直接用的标题（不同语气）：
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- 有心无力？数据显示曼联足总杯90分钟恐难分胜负
- 曼联陷拉锯战：模型测算常规时间打平概率偏高
- 数据端示警：曼联足总杯常规时间或难KO对手
- 曼联难言稳胜？多项指标指向90分钟平局倾向
- 曼联怕又拖加时？对位与xG均衡，胜负难早见分晓
- 旗鼓相当！模型显示曼联与对手90分钟胜负未卜
- 曼联胜算不突显：节奏与防线状态或把比赛拖进加时
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如果你想要赛前解读/预测，我可以给出这三种交付，选一个数字即可：
- 标题定稿＋50字导语
- 要点速览（近况/伤停/对位/战术/节奏）300字内
- 简易概率模型（Poisson），输出胜/平/负概率与比分分布
做概率模型我需要：
- 对手名称与比赛轮次/场地（主/客/中立）
- 双方近10场或赛季场均进/失球；或xG For/Against
- 主要伤停（影响进攻/防守效率）
一般参考：两队实力接近且节奏偏慢时，90分钟打平的基线概率约在28%–35%；若xG和防线质量高度接近，可上探至35%–40%。给我对手与基础数据，我就算一版你这场的具体数值。